At GlassBuild America 2025, economist Connor Lokar of ITR Economics delivered a data-driven forecast for the construction industry, revealing a cautiously optimistic outlook through 2026. His presentation, “Gearing Up for 2026,” emphasized that the U.S. economy is stabilizing and entering a new growth phase.
The economy is not collapsing today, and it’s not going to collapse tomorrow. It’s going to accelerate in 2026.
said Lokar, noting that industrial production and construction backlogs are improving for the first time in two years.
Lokar’s analysis pointed to a split recovery in construction. Single-family housing is expected to rebound in 2026, while multi-family and nonresidential sectors may continue to soften. However, data center construction stands out as a growth engine, with activity expanding by more than 40% year-over-year. Stabilizing backlogs and an improving Architecture Billings Index suggest that the worst phase of the downturn may be behind the industry.
Inflation, however, remains a persistent challenge. Lokar warned that after easing in 2023–2024, construction input costs, especially lumber, metals, and labor, are climbing again. Both CPI and PPI are forecasted to rise through 2026, keeping cost management a top priority. 
His strategic advice to businesses:
- Invest in digitization and AI to enhance competitiveness.
- Develop long-term inflation strategies and protect margins.
- Prepare for demographic and fiscal shifts expected between 2028–2032.
Despite fiscal headwinds, Lokar concluded on an encouraging note: “Most businesses will have a better 2026 than 2025. The winners will be those who plan ahead, using data, not headlines, to seize the opportunities forming now.”
Source: GlassBuild America with additional information added by Glass Balkan
